It’s hard to think of a better gift to President Obama on his first hundred days than the defection of Republican Senator Arlen Specter to the Democratic party.
Specter’s move (devastating for the GOP) changes the dynamics of politics in Washington. With Specter and Al Franken who will soon be seated from Minnesota, the Democrats will have 60 votes in the Senate. This means the Republicans will no longer be able to fillibuster and thus derail Obama’s agenda. Now the president has a clear shot.
In a sense this development says more about the Republicans than it does about the Democrats. And what it says is that the GOP is becoming more irrelevant by the day. The fact of the matter is that the real debate in the United States is now between liberals and conservatives within the Democratic party. The GOP has been relegated to the sidelines with no leader (except Rush Limbaugh), no policies except lowering taxes for the rich and no connection with mainstream America.
Most moderate Republicans have been defeated either by their own party or by Democrats. As seen in last year’s election, it is virtually impossible for a Republican to get elected in the north-east.
Adrift from power, the GOP is increasingly catering to its fast-shrinking base of conservative white voters (it is easier to see a woman at a papal election than it is to see a black GOP candidate) in the Deep South and High Plains mountain states.
With each further defection or defeat the Republican caucus becomes more rock-ribbed conservative and more completely divorced from the mainstream of American politics.
So the angry white males of the Republican party will become ever more strident in their denunciation of Obama and his party. But nobody will be listening except themselves.
Which raises the question how long can the few endangered moderates in the GOP stick with the party. How long will it be before enlightened senators like Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine also follow Senator Specter into the Democratic fold?
Why has the GOP collapsed?
Is there a future for the Republican party?
Will there be more defections?
What do you think?
Jon Stewart had a term for Specter’s defection: he caught the donkey flu. And he mused, as well, how long it might be before Snowe and Collins succumb.
I am not at all happy that the rump Republicans are in this sorry state. They have no effective, sensible, principled leadership. A two party system is essential for the USAmerican democracy to function. There is intelligent thought on the Right, but it is being out-shouted by a few pathetic demagogues who could do a great deal of damage along the way to the fabric of the nation.
The way I understand things, in as much as I understand annything, what is going on is simply a realignment of forces. There has always been left and right wings of Republicans and Democrats. As the extreme right of the Republican party becomes more strident and intolerant, the moderate Republicans join forces with the right wing Democrats. Obama will still have to deal with two parties within his majority and get the OK of both wings to pass his legislations. Seems forever that the votes in both Chambers have never been straight party lines votes…so what has really changed? The label will be clear on the Republican side and become fudged on the Dems side. Not sure it’s a gain.
The most interesting take I’ve heard on the electoral misfortunes of the GOP since the November election was from former Congressman Tom DeLay, about a week after the election. He claimed that the reason the GOP did so badly was because 32 million conservatives stayed home.
As I understood it, the crux of the argument was that John McCain is hardly a conservative and despite the presence of Sarah Palin the GOP base simply weren’t inspired to go to the polls.
I’ve heard it said that the U.S. is, essentially, a conservative country. Perhaps Clinton learned that when 2 years after first being elected president, congress in the mid-term election became a majority Republican and the so-called Gingrich or conservative revolution occurred…and, I would argue, Bill Clinton oversaw an agenda of legislation even more conservative than that of Ronald Reagan.
With the mid-term election happening in 21 months, Democrats are aware that this could happen again and, bottom line, if things in the economy don’t pick up it’s entirely possible to see a replay of what happened in ‘94 and there could be another sweep back to Republicans at least in the House.
I agree with you, Barbara. It would be much better were a moderate Republican party to survive.
Tony, I suggest that 1994 will not be repeated in 2010 is because Obama is a smarter politician than Bill Clinton ever was (although I like Clinton.)
The GOP will never be irrelevant. History shows us that they have a suicidal bent for getting ousted but it also shows us that there are enough airhead GOP voters around with short memories, or no memories, who would vote for the GOP’s return, as that old adage still applies, “bullshit baffles brains”. Neil, think that Obama and Clinton have the same number of marbles.Of course Obama doesn’t suffer from Clinton’s peccadillos.But there is something different going on in US politics today and the people have been waiting for it, and that is the chance to not have the same ole same ole style politics. To make it so, there had to be a whole new world. And along he came, yes, he or she just had to be a non-white to show that it wasn’t going to be more of the same oles. Your going to hear shouts from both sides that Socialism is creaping in. That’s good because it will show that it is already there. Sweden is Socialist with the inherent benefits of Socialism. The US has the same benefits, with added features, it has food stamps and funds not to grow certain crops. As time goes on the USers will learn how to spell the word. The big payoff is yet to com. Transparency will be the undoing of all the lies from the GOP.
Both parties are culpable. Singling out the GOP is to misuse facts and dismiss history outright.
Jim, there’s a s*** load of “airheads” in the Democratic party too.
Don’t drink the “Sweden is swell” kool-aid too easily either. That country has its own serious issues. Most people simply don’t investigate it because they assume all is ok there.
Yeah and you can count me in on one of those who distrusts socialism. It’s the opposite of the right-wing free marketers in the Thatcher mold. Neither is as good as advertised. You can scam just as easily with it.
I’m willing to sit back and wait to see if Obama is the San Jose Sharks or Detroit Red Wings to borrow a hockey term. Right now, he’s Carey Price – all promise and potential. Although he’s not as immature and doesn’t have Bob Gainey to coddle him.
Again, let the guy govern.
The real question is what will politics be like after the Republicans complete their death spiral and the U.S. is left with only one relevant political party.
Judging how the Specter deal was handled it could lead to the return of the back room deal. Since the Democratic primary will be the only relevant election, it will be much easier to manipulate who is running and who will win.
What model will politics follow in the U.S: Mass., Maryland, Chicago, California, etc?
superdestroyer -
Thanks for your interesting comment.